I've reranked the teams, but as we all know, March is made for upsets. Here are my picks for the Round of Sixteen in the 2015 NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky vs. West Virginia
This is the first time Kentucky's guards will have been tested all tournament. Things should be interesting early, especially if the Mountaineers can continue to force turnovers, and continue to score off those turnovers at the clip they have been doing so. That being said, don't expect this game to stay close to deep into the second half. I have the Wildcats winning by a comfortable margin.
Result: Kentucky 72 - West Virginia 59
Gonzaga vs. UCLA
These teams met earlier in the season and Gonzaga won comfortably, even with the Bruins shooting better than 45% from behind the arc. You can expect a similar result, but a larger margin of victory. Gonzaga's offense is just too efficient. It'll take a huge effort from UCLA to keep this one close.
Result: Gonzaga 84 - UCLA 63
Arizona vs. Xavier
Xavier has a great all around game. But the Wildcats are just too well-rounded for this to be close. We have a collision course for a rematch of last years Elite Eight matchup between Wisconsin and Arizona. Arizona has been red hot since the middle of February, and I don't foresee them not making it past the Musketeers. The game will be closer than people anticipate, but Arizona will never really be in trouble.
Result: Arizona 78 - Xavier 67
Wisconsin vs North Carolina
North Carolina has looked great so far. Wisconsin, not so much. Still, North Carolina will face a tremendous task in containing Frank Kaminsky if sophomore Kennedy Meeks can't go. Anything is possible with Marcus Paige on the court. Expect an offensive outburst from him, somewhere in the 28 point range. Still, Wisconsin's offense is just too good.
Result: Wisconsin 81 - North Carolina 72
Louisville vs. NC State
This game could go either way. Louisville is a solid favorite, but this is a team that has struggled with consistency. I look for the Wolf Pack to rattle them early and make a game of it, but Montrezl Harrell and Louisville's defense will wear them down. Rick Pitino is too talented a coach to not have his boys ready to bang inside with a four days of prep.
Result: Louisville 54 - NC State 52
Duke vs. Utah
This matchup is my second favorite of the Sweet Sixteen. I think it will be closer than people realize, particularly with Utah's excellent defense. If they can contain Jahlil Okafor inside this could be a long day for the Blue Devils. It's hard to bet agains Coach K on almost a week of prep. My heart says Utah will win a close game in overtime, but my head says Duke pulls it out.
Result: Utah 75 - Duke 72 *OT* (looks like my heart won)
Oklahoma vs Michigan State
This is an interesting matchup. Oklahoma has been unheralded much of the year, falling right in the mid to late teens in the AP Top 25. Tom Izzo's squad has lacked the talent of previous teams, but have performed well nonetheless. I just don't think Michigan State's offense will be able to score enough against a stout Sooner defense to pull this one out.
Result: Oklahoma 59 - Michigan State 54
Notre Dame vs Wichita State
This is a pick 'em game. Honestly. Pick one of these teams. That's how evenly matched they are. Entering the tournament, I had Notre Dame making it to the Elite Eight to face Kentucky. The logic then was simple. An extremely talented offense (#2 in the Nation in Offensive Efficiency) coming off an ACC Tournament Title has to win at least three games, right? Especially given that the #2 seed in their region was Kansas. Well, Wichita State is an entirely different beast. Given Notre Dame's abhorrant offense in the tournament thus far, I think the Shockers have enough offensive firepower to pull off yet another tourney upset. This squad has Final Four experience, and know they agony of being upset, a deadly combination.
Result: Wichita State 77 - Notre Dame 72
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