With the opening weekend of the 2015 NCAA Tournament in the books, the field of contenders for this years tourney are beginning to take shape. Despite upset losses by top seeds Villanova and Virginia in the East region, the selection committee has done quite a good job at seeding. Outside of 11th Seed UCLA, who some could argue are only into the Sweet 16 by virtue of facing 14th seeded UAB, the field of sixteen is filled with top seeds. Even lower seeds Xavier and Wichita State have experienced success in March in recent years, and you can never sell coach Tom Izzo's Spartans short during the NCAA Tournament. But where would do the teams stand now? Here is a reranking of the teams remaining based heavily on their performance in the first weekend, and the potential on their roster.
1. Kentucky
Overall number one seed Kentucky has lived up to it's billing so far, dispatching both Cincinnati and Hampton handily. Kentucky has forced teams to work for a full 35 seconds on offense, often even just to get into their half-court set, or take a contested shot. Additionally, their ability to come at teams in waves has allowed them to open games up in the second half. That's before you mention that the Wildcats' best player so far, Willie Cauley-Stein, doesn't even have the highest ceiling on the team. There's a reason that the Wildcat's are at even-money.
2. Arizona
Arizona was equally impressive in the Tourney's opening weekend, heightening the anticipation for a potential Final Four matchup of Wildcats. After early stumbles against UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State, Sean Miller's squad is absolutely rolling. A less than spectacular showing by the Wisconsin Badgers means a Final Four appearance is within reach.
2a. Duke
Call it a cop-out, but it comes down to a judgement call between the Blue Devils and the tournaments other Wildcats. I only give the nod to Arizona because they are more promising on the defensive end. Freshman phenom, Jahlil Okafor is a man among boys, and quickly solidifying his stock as the potential top pick in the NBA Draft. Duke's offensive has been dominant, but watch out for a Elite Eight matchup with Gonzaga, who has been operating just as well offensively. Duke has struggled this season with teams who can work it on the offensive side of the ball.
4. Gonzaga
The Zags round out the last of the new top seeds in the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, they share Southern bracket with Duke, so a Final Four appearance will be a tall order. Lucky for them, they should able to handle UCLA. Experience should be an advantage for Gonzaga with Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer and senior guards Kevin Pangos and Byron Wesley leading the way.
5. Wisconsin
The Badgers haven't impressed so far, but their regular season results give them the edge over their upcoming opponent. They need to run the offense more effectively through Wooden Award favorite Frank "the Tank" Kaminsky or they'll find themselves watching the Elite Eight from Madison.
6. North Carolina
The Tarheels have looked solid so far, leading to a much anticipated matchup with Wisconsin on Thursday Night. When Marcus Paige and the offense are firing on all cylinders this team is tough to beat. Consider this, besides a tough loss to Pittsburgh, all of UNC's losses this season have come to Tournament teams. They also managed to reach the conference tournament final in a grueling ACC. Look for their length to give Wisconsin problems inside.
1. Kentucky
Overall number one seed Kentucky has lived up to it's billing so far, dispatching both Cincinnati and Hampton handily. Kentucky has forced teams to work for a full 35 seconds on offense, often even just to get into their half-court set, or take a contested shot. Additionally, their ability to come at teams in waves has allowed them to open games up in the second half. That's before you mention that the Wildcats' best player so far, Willie Cauley-Stein, doesn't even have the highest ceiling on the team. There's a reason that the Wildcat's are at even-money.
Arizona was equally impressive in the Tourney's opening weekend, heightening the anticipation for a potential Final Four matchup of Wildcats. After early stumbles against UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State, Sean Miller's squad is absolutely rolling. A less than spectacular showing by the Wisconsin Badgers means a Final Four appearance is within reach.
Call it a cop-out, but it comes down to a judgement call between the Blue Devils and the tournaments other Wildcats. I only give the nod to Arizona because they are more promising on the defensive end. Freshman phenom, Jahlil Okafor is a man among boys, and quickly solidifying his stock as the potential top pick in the NBA Draft. Duke's offensive has been dominant, but watch out for a Elite Eight matchup with Gonzaga, who has been operating just as well offensively. Duke has struggled this season with teams who can work it on the offensive side of the ball.
The Zags round out the last of the new top seeds in the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, they share Southern bracket with Duke, so a Final Four appearance will be a tall order. Lucky for them, they should able to handle UCLA. Experience should be an advantage for Gonzaga with Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer and senior guards Kevin Pangos and Byron Wesley leading the way.
The Badgers haven't impressed so far, but their regular season results give them the edge over their upcoming opponent. They need to run the offense more effectively through Wooden Award favorite Frank "the Tank" Kaminsky or they'll find themselves watching the Elite Eight from Madison.
The Tarheels have looked solid so far, leading to a much anticipated matchup with Wisconsin on Thursday Night. When Marcus Paige and the offense are firing on all cylinders this team is tough to beat. Consider this, besides a tough loss to Pittsburgh, all of UNC's losses this season have come to Tournament teams. They also managed to reach the conference tournament final in a grueling ACC. Look for their length to give Wisconsin problems inside.
7. Oklahoma
Oklahoma has lived up to their seeding, and with losses by Villanova and Virginia the East Region is ripe for the taking. Their defensive efficiency and rebounding ability leaves them as a tough opponent going forward, but I see Final Four as the limit for every team left in the East.
8. Wichita State
Wichita State's upset of Kansas should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Jayhawks 2-seed was based more on an inflated view of the Big 12 than actual performance. Still, the Shockers have the experience to make a run. Unfortunately, they'll have to unseat Kentucky to progress further than the Elite Eight. Though not as dominant as last years squad, the upper class-men trio of Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, and Tekele Cotton will look to make a return trip to the Final Four for the second time in three years.
9. Utah
Utah has flown under the radar, despite a stellar regular season and tournament performance so far. Defense is their strong point, and coupled with their offensive-efficiency they could provide some problems for Duke. Still, I would be surprised to see the Utes advance, but anything can happen in March.
10. Michigan State
Tom Izzo will go down as one of the greatest postseason coaches in NCAA history. Led by senior guard Travis Trice and junior guard Denzel Valentine the Spartans will look to re-up on the Final Four appearance that last years seniors missed out on. Execution has been on point, and MSU is two winnable games away from heading relatively close to home, Indianapolis.
11. Notre Dame
Notre Dame has just not performed on the defensive end. Their offense is as good as any in the tournament, but despite an ACC tournament championship, the Fighting Irish just haven't lived up to their billing to rank them any higher. I still expect them to beat Wichita State, but unless they can fix their defensive lapses, they won't get past Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
12. Louisville
Louisville is a tough team to figure out. When they are on they can beat anyone, but inconsistency has been their biggest enemy. Still, they have a better shot of reaching the Final Four than when the tournament began. If junior forward Montrezl Harrell can handle business inside they'll be a tough team to beat. But, if he finds himself in foul trouble early, they could be just as easily bounced by the NC State Wolfpack.
13. West Virginia
The mountaineers are as aggressive a defensive squad you will see. Bob Huggins has fielded consistently competitive, if unspectacular squads, and has the type of team that could bother Kentucky's young guards. After giving a very talented Maryland backcourt problems, look for them to force several turnovers against Kentucky. However, I don't think they'll be able to force enough to tip the scales in their favor.
14. Xavier
The musketeers are a well rounded bunch. Excellent on the offensive side of the ball, the Musketeers have been a solid middle seed in the tournament during the past decade. Unfortunately, Arizona has too much talent, and is playing too well to be toppled.
15. NC State
The Wolfpack get a raw deal in my rerank. After preventing a three Wildcat Final Four with their upset of Villanova, NC State blew the Eastern Region wide open. They've had quality wins, and bad losses in a tough ACC. Fridays matchup with Louisville is a toss up.
16. UCLA
There's not much to say about the Bruins. Many, myself included, didn't think they belonged in the field of 68, but you can't knock results. Helped tremendously by UAB's first round upset, don't expect to see UCLA still around come Saturday morning.
Oklahoma has lived up to their seeding, and with losses by Villanova and Virginia the East Region is ripe for the taking. Their defensive efficiency and rebounding ability leaves them as a tough opponent going forward, but I see Final Four as the limit for every team left in the East.
8. Wichita State
Wichita State's upset of Kansas should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Jayhawks 2-seed was based more on an inflated view of the Big 12 than actual performance. Still, the Shockers have the experience to make a run. Unfortunately, they'll have to unseat Kentucky to progress further than the Elite Eight. Though not as dominant as last years squad, the upper class-men trio of Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, and Tekele Cotton will look to make a return trip to the Final Four for the second time in three years.
Utah has flown under the radar, despite a stellar regular season and tournament performance so far. Defense is their strong point, and coupled with their offensive-efficiency they could provide some problems for Duke. Still, I would be surprised to see the Utes advance, but anything can happen in March.
Tom Izzo will go down as one of the greatest postseason coaches in NCAA history. Led by senior guard Travis Trice and junior guard Denzel Valentine the Spartans will look to re-up on the Final Four appearance that last years seniors missed out on. Execution has been on point, and MSU is two winnable games away from heading relatively close to home, Indianapolis.
Notre Dame has just not performed on the defensive end. Their offense is as good as any in the tournament, but despite an ACC tournament championship, the Fighting Irish just haven't lived up to their billing to rank them any higher. I still expect them to beat Wichita State, but unless they can fix their defensive lapses, they won't get past Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Louisville is a tough team to figure out. When they are on they can beat anyone, but inconsistency has been their biggest enemy. Still, they have a better shot of reaching the Final Four than when the tournament began. If junior forward Montrezl Harrell can handle business inside they'll be a tough team to beat. But, if he finds himself in foul trouble early, they could be just as easily bounced by the NC State Wolfpack.
The mountaineers are as aggressive a defensive squad you will see. Bob Huggins has fielded consistently competitive, if unspectacular squads, and has the type of team that could bother Kentucky's young guards. After giving a very talented Maryland backcourt problems, look for them to force several turnovers against Kentucky. However, I don't think they'll be able to force enough to tip the scales in their favor.
The musketeers are a well rounded bunch. Excellent on the offensive side of the ball, the Musketeers have been a solid middle seed in the tournament during the past decade. Unfortunately, Arizona has too much talent, and is playing too well to be toppled.
The Wolfpack get a raw deal in my rerank. After preventing a three Wildcat Final Four with their upset of Villanova, NC State blew the Eastern Region wide open. They've had quality wins, and bad losses in a tough ACC. Fridays matchup with Louisville is a toss up.
There's not much to say about the Bruins. Many, myself included, didn't think they belonged in the field of 68, but you can't knock results. Helped tremendously by UAB's first round upset, don't expect to see UCLA still around come Saturday morning.
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