Thursday, October 22, 2015

Overrated? Harper is NL MVP, and It's Not Even Close

41 Percent. That's the number of players that believed Bryce Harper was the most overrated player in Major League Baseball in ESPN the Magazine's player poll released this past Spring. The poll would mark the second consecutive year that Harper would carry the distinction of leagues most overrated player. Early returns are, he won't be winning a third consecutive title. Despite the Washington National's struggles, Harper, just 22, produced one of the most impressive offensive performances in recent memory. 

Harper ranked in the top five of nearly every offensive category in 2015
The biggest criticism of Harper's 2015 season? The performance of his team. Being unable to navigate a National's team marred by injury and inconsistent pitching to a playoff berth would certainly cost Harper's MVP bid in any other season, but who should win this year's award isn't even up for discussion. 2015 saw Harper dominate almost every offensive statistical category. Harper ranked first in the Majors in on base percentage and slugging, while ranking third in batting average (second in the NL), posting an impressive .330/.460/.649. His 9.9 wins above replacement were also best in the majors, while he trailed only Joey Votto with 124 walks. Harper's 99 RBIs were good enough for 5th in the NL, while his 118 runs were good for the top spot. Harper's 146.1 runs created also topped the majors, while his 81 extra base hits put him in the top 5 of all of baseball.

Beyond the gaudy offensive numbers, the most discernible impact of Bryce Harper's game came with his newfound patience at the plate. In 2015, Bryce saw an average of 4.1 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.9 in 2014. Even more indicative of Harper's maturation at the plate is his strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 1:1 (124 BBs and 131 Ks) as compared to nearly 5:2 in 2014 (38 BBs and 104 Ks). Harper took the next step in 2015, turning into the offensive juggernaut he was touted to be out of high school. His offensive game has evolved. In 2014, Harper could capitalize on mistakes. 2015 Harper's patient approach allowed him to capitalize on perfect pitches. Harper's 1.1090 OPS marked the first time a player posted a OPS above 1.100 since Albert Pujols in 2008. Harper, at 22, is the youngest player ever to post a OPS greater than 1.100, tied with hall of famers Ted Williams and Joe Kelley.

Bryce Harper started 2015 as the most overrated player according to MLB players. He'll end the year as the NL's most valuable, and it's not even close. 

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

NFC East Now Up For Grabs?

Before a report surfaced from Bleacher Report early today, it seemed, for once, the Washington Redskins were the only NFC East team not embroiled in any kind of controversy. Poor play calling and time management at the end of games leading to two 10 point leads being squandered in New York? Franchise cornerstones Dez Bryant and Tony Romo injured in Dallas? Offensive, scratch that, complete ineptitude in Philly? Even with reports that embattled former second overall pick Robert Griffin and current starter Kirk Cousins have an, at the least, untenable relationship, things are looking wide open for Washington to compete for the NFC East crown.

Matt Jones' (31) bruising running style has helped
Washington set the tone on offense
After a 24-10 dismantling of the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, Washington is a 69 yard punt return removed from a 2-0 start to the season. How have they done it? With the physical attitude new General Manager Scot McCloughan had hoped to bring back to the Nation's Capitol. It's undeniable that the attitude with which Washington has played the first two weeks is one of a smash-mouth team that you'll remember playing. The teams success has started up front, with offseason additions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean-Francois paying early dividends on defense, while fifth overall pick Brandon Scherff has fueled a resurgent offensive line. Look no further than the stat line for evidence that McCloughan's plan is, so far, working. The Redskins lead the league in rushing yards per game; toting the ball for 171 yards per contest, thanks largely to the 1-2 punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, who rank 6th and 8th overall, respectively, in rush yards. But why is this important? Beyond allowing Kirk Cousins to play "game manager" (Cousins has completed 75.9% of his passes, despite only throwing for 379 yards), the dominant rushing attack has kept opposing team's offenses on the sideline. Washington trails only Dallas in time of possession, averaging a whopping 37:49 of possession through two contests, up from a pedestrian 30:26 in 2014.

Newly added NT Terrance Knighton (98)
has anchored a stout front seven on defense
The ability to control the clock has only aided a defense that, granted against subpar competition, has looked dominant. Washington ranks 1st in the NFL in total yards allowed per game at a mere 234.5 yards per game. To give some perspective, Washington's top two running backs have gained 180 and 151 yards respectively through two games. Washington has been stout up front, allowing just 70.5 yards per game on the ground, good for 4th in the NFL, and has allowed just 164 yards per game through the air, despite playing with leads in both weeks. All this has allowed Washington to trail only Carolina and the New York Jets in points per game given up at 13.5 per game, a number that drops to 10 if you discount points given up by special teams.

Given Washington's new defensive and run-oriented personality, a team that many picked to finish 7-9 at best, has a legitimate shot to win the NFC East. If Kirk Cousins can continue to limit mistakes, manage the game, and convert key third downs, Washington has a shot, thanks in large part to everyone else's short comings. The NFC East however will be decided as it always is, by divisional record. Washington can begin to put it's best foot forward this Thursday night as they visit the New York Giants for their first primetime game of the year. The last time they visited New York on a Thursday night? Last years debacle of a performance, where four Kirk Cousins interceptions led to an embarrassing 45-14 defeat. If the team can keep winning in the trenches, the outcome should be different this time around.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

DC Rising - Best Week in DC Sports History?

Now before I start, let's go ahead and throw out all the championships in DC sports history. Most people would argue a championship trumps overall good play in the postseason, regardless of how many teams were playing well. Yet for a city without a championship in one of the four major sports in 24 years, all four of DC's major franchises seem to be trending upwards. This past week could very possibly have been the best week in DC Sports History. It's definitely been the best in recent memory.

Washington Redskins
Let's start with the DC franchise most recently mired in mediocrity, and that's putting it nicely. This weekend saw new general manager Scot McCloughan stick to his draft board, draft players with toughness and an edge, and pick up extra selections. It'll take a few years to see how this draft turns out, but it has the chance to be a real "meat and potatoes" draft for a team that really needed it. In the upper half of the draft, McCloughan took players who can help immediately set the tone in the trenches. In the latter half, players who should immediately help on special teams. Fixing a deficient offensive line was a top priority, one that McCloughan did early and often. With a proven track record in evaluating talent, McCloughan has Washington on the right track. 


Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer, acquired this offseason, looked excellent Friday night
After losing four straight games on a ten game road trip, the Washington Nationals started the week with a 13-12, come from behind win over division rival Atlanta, after trailing 9-1 in the second inning. The following two nights produced a 13-4 clobbering of the Braves, and 8-2 win over the New York Mets. Despite a 4-0 loss on Friday night, Max Scherzer pitched like the ace the Nationals shelled out $210 million to acquire. Washington would cap off the week with back-to-back 1-0 wins, on the backs of two sensational pitching performances. Despite early troubles, the Nats are on the right track after taking two consecutive series from division rivals on the road. 


Washington Capitals
Capitals celebrate Joel Ward's buzzer-beater goal
The Capitals started the week with a game 7 and series win over the New York Islanders. Washington, who has struggled in game 7's recently, is making a strong bid in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs. Thursday night saw an improbable Game 1 win over the Eastern Conference's top-seeded New York Rangers. Joel Ward's goal with 1.2 seconds to go is one of the greatest moments in franchise history in the past several years. Despite a loss Saturday night, the Capitals have still stolen home ice. 




Otto Porter Jr (22) has played huge for
the Wizards in the 2015 postseason
Washington Wizards
Sunday night saw the Wizards dismantle a Toronto Raptors squad whose confidence had been destroyed, leading to Washington's first sweep of a seven game postseason series in franchise history. Game four saw a broken Raptors squad that appeared shell-shocked after a game three shellacking. After a full week of rest, the Wizards took on, and defeated the East's top seeded Atlanta Hawks. The Wiz are the hottest team in the East. They contained the Hawk's transition game, and forced them to play a half-court game in which they shot 37.8% from the floor. The playoff format should allow ample rest for banged-up, star guards Bradley Beal and John Wall after game 2. If the Wizards continue their excellent play in the postseason, they could find themselves in the Conference Finals, and even the NBA Finals. 


Friday, May 1, 2015

6 Targets for Washington at 38

With the first round of the NFL Draft in the books, Washington's first pick, Brandon Scherff from Iowa, is starting to look a lot better. The reason being? Not only does Scherff fill a need and bring a level of toughness Scot McCloughan has been looking for, but the available talent in the second round should allow Washington to come away with two very good players. Washington picks 6th in the 2nd round, 38th overall. Here's a look at six prospects that they could target, at least one of which will be available by the time they pick.

Jaelen Stong, WR - Arizona State
A big bodied receiver standing at 6 feet 2.5 inches and weighing in at 217 pounds, Strong possesses the 4.4 speed that teams covet in a wide receiver. Projected as a first round pick, Strong fell out of the first round, most likely due to injury concerns about his wrist. Regardless, Strong is a big play receiver who would help complement Desean Jackson on the outside and give Washington some extra size at the wide receiver position. With Pierre Garcon's future in Washington in doubt after this year, adding to the wide receiving corps would be prudent, particularly if a prospect like Strong is available. 

T.J Clemmings, OT - Pittsburgh
Clemmings is seen by some as one of the better left tackle prospects in this draft. Though he would probably start at the right tackle spot, Clemmings would offer great competition for the starting spot and allow Brandon Scherff to be played at left guard. Clemmings would potentially be a reach, depending on the other players still on the board, but if Washington has him rated highly enough, don't be surprised if they pick offensive lineman with their first two picks.

Jalen Collins, DB - LSU
Collins has the size and speed NFL teams covet at the cornerback position standing at 6 foot 1 and weighing 203 pounds with a 4.48 40 time. McCloughan is known to like defensive backs who stand taller than 6 feet. Collins fell primarily due to injury concerns, but he would add depth and talent to a secondary that was one of the worst in football last season.

Randy Gregory, OLB - Nebraska
Randy Gregory (44) offers incredible value in the 2nd round
The off the field issues for Gregory have been well publicized, and his fall has not been unexpected, expect perhaps in degree. Gregory is one of the premier pass-rushers in this year's draft, and was projected as a top-10 pick early in the draft process. If Gregory slides to 38, Washington could find themselves with perhaps the best pure pass-rusher, while having already acquired a great offensive line talent in the first round. Despite his off-field issues, Gregory offers incredible value at 38.

Eli Harold, OLB - Virginia
Harold is one of the top prospects as an outside linebacker in this years draft. He doesn't offer the same punch as a pass-rusher as Randy Gregory, but is further along in terms of being able to drop back into coverage. Regardless, Washington should be able to allow him to develop even more in that regard with Trent Murphy filling the OLB role on first and second down. Harold's all around game may even put him above Gregory on Washington's board, especially given the latter's off the field concerns.

Landon Collins, S - Alabama
Landon Collins (26) wears the number of his idol,
the late Washington star safety Sean Taylor
Collins was seen by many to be a middle-first round pick, albeit in a very weak safety class. Damarious Randall, from Arizona State leap-frogged him last night, probably due to concerns over Collins' ability in coverage. Regardless, Collins possesses excellent speed, running a 4.53 40, and has size to boot. He plays best in the box, which may preclude him from being selected by Washington, who prefer their safeties to be able to play either role. It's hard to see where he fits with the additions of Dashon Goldson and Jeron Johnson, but with Johnson's ability to play the free safety position, if they have him rated high enough he could be their guy at 38. How great would it be to see a player who idolized the late Sean Taylor play for the Burgundy and Gold on Sundays?



Thursday, April 30, 2015

New Scherff in Town - Washington Selects Top Offensive Lineman at Five

With the fifth overall pick in this year's NFL Draft, Washington selected Brandon Scherff, an offensive tackle from Iowa. The top offensive line prospect according to ESPN's Mel Kiper, Scherff stands at 6 foot 4.5 inches and weighs in at 319 pounds. A tough-nosed, mauler, Scherff will help immediately in the run game, and in pass protection for RG3. He possesses great strength and athleticism having run a 5.05 in the 40 yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Check out some highlights.

Brandon Scherff fits the profile of a run-mauler
How He Fits
The fit for Scherff is obvious. The team has a need at Right Tackle, and head coach Jon Gruden made it clear that Scherff will begin his career on the right side. This will only benefit the team's offensive unit, particularly in the run game. Washington ranked 19th in running offense last season, and both Scot McCloughan and Jay Gruden have made it clear that improving in this area is a top priority. Improving the running game will only help Robert Griffin III, and given that the team picked up his fifth-year option recently, that is a top priority. Scherff will also improve the pass protection, whether he plays outside or inside. Washington ranked second to last with 58 sacks allowed in 2014. 

What It Means
Scot McCloughan demonstrated he is sticking to his draft board. Washington passed on potentially the best player in the draft in Leonard Williams, and given injury concerns, and the additions Washington made in the off-season, defensive line was not a top priority. McCloughan also demonstrated he meant it when he said "we want big, tough, nasty, strong guys." It also may indicate that the number player on their board was Dante Fowler Jr., who went third overall to Jacksonville. For the time being, RG3 seems to be the man in Washington, and McCloughan plans to put the pieces around him to be successful. Generally speaking, you don't take a guard with the fifth overall pick. Could Washington have potentially traded down? Yes. But McCloughan clearly has a plan. Look for them to improve the pass rush, or defensive backfield with their first pick in the second round, depending on the players still available. 


Wednesday, April 29, 2015

A Look to the Draft - Washington's Top Needs for the NFL Draft

With the NFL Draft coming up this weekend, we'll take a look at the top needs to be filled with their seven picks. Of course there is the possibility, and according to some reports a strong likelihood, that the team trades out of a few spots to land more picks. However, barring a trade, we'll go through the top seven needs for the team, seeing as they won't be able to fill more. Of course, the team may pick multiple players at the same position if their board dictates to do so.

Let's Begin.

First Things First; Pick Best Player Available
Leonard Williams (94, USC) the presumed best player
in this years draft would be a dominant force on the d-line
Early indications are that new general manager Scot McCloughan is of the mindset to pick the best player available, rather than perceived areas of need dictate the players picked. The obvious logic being, if two players are close enough on your big board, you pick the one that fills the biggest area of need. This strategy is a must for a team that has only two positions that don't need improved production; Left Tackle (Trent Williams) and one Outside Linebacker spot (Ryan Kerrigan). For instance, if Leonard Williams (hailed by many as the best pick in the draft) were to fall to them at five, you pick him. Regardless of the off-season additions along the defensive line, Williams could be a transcendent player at the position for years to come. 

1 - Premier Pass Rusher
Emphasis on "pass rusher". This pick may very well be an outside linebacker, or Leonard Williams if he is to fall. Washington ranked tied for 21st in sacks last season with a pedestrian 36. Factor in the departure of Brian Orakpo, and pass rusher is their top need. Picking up a dominant force to pair with Ryan Kerrigan will go a long way in improving a pass defense that ranked 24th in yards allowed with 3990, and even more troubling, tied for last in yards per attempt with 8.2. Last years pick of Trent Murphy gives the team flexibility as they can opt for a pass-rusher who lacks a complete game and needs time to develop in other areas such as Eli Harold out of Virginia.

2 - Offensive Tackle
Now this depends on where they see Morgan Moses and Tom Compton fitting in, in both the long and short-term, however the right tackle spot needs a massive upgrade. Too often last season, were all three quarterbacks under pressure off the snap from the right side. Either you pick a player who can come in and compete for a starting job, or someone who you plan on developing. You can never have enough options at tackle.

Goldson signed this offseason
3 - Developmental Safety
With the additions of Dashon Goldson and Jeron Johnson in free agency, Washington has upgraded their last line of defense. However, it is unclear how Johnson will play in a starting role, and how much longer Goldson can play at a starting level. Goldson could see an uptick in production, due to a change in scenery, but he'll be 31 in September, and an heir-apparent is necessary.






4 - 3rd Down Running Back 
Alfred Morris has provided excellent production over his first three seasons as a pro, but there's no guarantee that Scot McCloughan sees him as his back of the future, particularly given the shift to a predominately power blocking scheme. Look for Washington to pick a complete back to succeed Morris, or at the very least a 3rd down back, a position they badly need better production from.

5 - Interior Lineman
Kory Lichtensteiger, has been adequate, if unspectacular, at center, but Washington needs better production from both guard spots. Chris Chester's best days are long behind him, and Shaun Lauvo was a big disappointment his first year in Washington, given the contract he signed. Spencer Long is a candidate for an expanded role, but as with tackles, you can never have enough young lineman to develop. Expect Scot McCloughan to go after some "mean and nasty" men inside to help shift to a power blocking scheme.

6 - Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper (9, Alabama) and Kevin White (11, West Virginia)
are seen as 1 and 1a at wide receiver in this year's NFL Draft
This may be a head scratcher to some, particularly with Pierre Garcon, Desean Jackson, and Andre Roberts on the roster. However, Garcon has a huge cap hit next season, while Roberts disappointed in his first season. Ryan Grant is a young guy to keep an eye on, but don't be shocked if Washington selects West Virginia's Kevin White or Alabama's Amari Cooper with the fifth overall pick if Leonard Williams and their top rated pass-rushers are gone. Look for them at the very least to pick a developmental player in later rounds in a draft that is stacked with wide receiver talent.

7 - Cornerback
Washington has solid depth at the cornerback position with the acquisition of Chris Culliver and the return of Deangelo Hall from injury. However, questions remain as to the top end talent they have at the position. Bashaud Breeland had flashes in his rookie season, while David Amerson failed to show the development they expected in his second year. Look for Washington to look for a developmental player in later rounds, or a top tier talent if someone like Wake Forest's Kevin Johnson or Connecticut's Byron Jones is available when they pick in the second round.

Note: Quarterback is a glaring need in Washington. Whether the franchise guy is on the roster remains to be seen, but the fact of the matter is RG3 is the guy for now. This team has too many holes to pick anything more than a qb to develop and stick on the practice squad, unless he is 100% believed to be their guy. Picking up RG3's fifth year rookie option also makes picking a quarterback in the first few rounds unlikely.



Nat's Comeback Win - Sign of Things to Come

Dan Uggla (26) blasts go-ahead 3-run home run in 9th inning of last nights
come from behind win. Uggla went 3-5 with 5 RBIs
It's not time to hit the panic button in Washington -- just yet. Despite a troubling start by the pre-season World Series favorites, last night's 13-12, come from behind win over the division rival Braves is the best thing the National's could have asked for. Yes, they still remain 7 games back from the division leading Mets, but with May right around the corner, there is still plenty of time to overcome that gap. Currently, the National's would have to play .560 baseball to catch the Mets if they were to play .500 baseball, a generous low-bar for a team with one of the most underrated rotations in the majors. 

After last night's game, it seems the turnaround Nat's fans have been waiting for is not far off. For one, their hitting at .224/.297/.668 line, still down from last year's .253/.321/.714 line. Last night, the club hit .375 with four walks, but more importantly a much better average with runners in scoring position, a problem that has nagged at this team to start the past three seasons. Considering Rendon is still on his way back, and Jayson Werth is still getting up to speed, these numbers should improve drastically. Additionally, the club has a 3.81 ERA and WHIP of 1.44, far above their 3.03 and 1.16 averages in 2014. When relief pitcher Aaron Barrett leads the team in wins with two, there is a problem. These numbers should also improve for a rotation that is, at the very least, just as good as last years. Let's not forget, this is a team that had 8 walk-off or overtime wins in the month of August alone in 2014. Last night was a demonstration of this team's focus; play good baseball and the wins will come. Over the first month of the season, we've been expecting for things to go wrong. After coming back from a 9-2 deficit to win, we can start expecting for things to go right again.