Keys to Playoff Fantasy Success - Using Math to Win Your Playoff Fantasy Football League

Jordan Reed has emerged as a top-flight fantasy option

If you are anything like me, you're probably looking to the NFL playoffs as a chance for some fantasy football redemption. That's not to say I did poorly. In fact, I finished just above middle of the pack in all my leagues, even sliding into the final playoff spot in one (call it a product of drafting Jeremy Hill and Jimmy Graham in all leagues). Yet, the NFL playoffs offer a different approach to fantasy that can knock some less experienced players off course. Unlike the regular season, the number of games each player will play is not the same (excluding injuries of course). For this reason, a players individual skill is not the sole determinant in their value. Take someone like Jordan Reed, tight end for the Washington Redskins. He's been the second best scoring tight end in fantasy this season. However, there is a high likelihood (call Washington's first round game with the Packers a pick-em) he only gets one game of production in the playoffs. Compared with someone like Travis Kelce (the fifth best TE option this year) who plays on a team with potential for a deep playoff run, Reed may not be the better option. Easy enough to understand intuitively, but how can we break this down mathematically to give us the best shot of winning, or at least drafting well? I'll show you.

The key to this computation is a calculation of expected games played. It doesn't matter how many games a team wins in our case, only how many games our players have the chance for production. The most basic way to calculate this is with expected value. It should be noted that expected value gives us only a marginally accurate probability (and technically shouldn't be used in the case of dependent events), as the number of games we expect a team to play are not entirely independent of one another. The higher the probability a team has to make it to the divisional round inherently drags up the probability they will make it to the Conference Championship. Still, expected value will give us a working assessment of the probable value each team holds in terms of number of games played. For this calculation we'll use numbers from the guys over at FiveThirtyEight, predicting the playoffs based off of each team's ELO rating.

FiveThirtyEight provides some great mathematical and statistical analysis, including these playoff odds for each team

Expected Games Played for each
Team in NFL Playoffs

In order to calculate the expected games played, one needs to multiply the percent chance a team makes a given round by the additional one game that round would represent. For instance, Carolina has an 100% chance of making the divisional round (they have a bye, will automatically play in that round), a 61% chance of making the Conference Championship, and a 38% chance of making the Super Bowl. When multiplying these values by one game a piece, we are left with 1 game + .61 games + .38 games with a total expected games played of 1.98 games. Carrying out the process for all teams gives us the following expectation.

Taking this data gives us a good approximation for each players projected points. It should be noted, that this gives us an expected value, one that would be based off of the aggregate result of multiple playoffs of the same construction. Thus, the variance in the data will be somewhat large. We can weigh this variance in our favor by picking players from teams with a high expected number of games, but also a high potential to exceed their potential games. This essentially refers to picking players on the best teams playing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Taking a side by side look at Seattle and Carolina we see that both teams have a similar expected number of games. However, Seattle has the opportunity to play, at most, four games, while Carolina can only play a maximum of three. 

Taking the expected number of games played for each team, and multiplying by the average fantasy points per game of each player will give us a good prediction of each player's expected production in the NFL playoffs. Of course, this data only gives us a clue of relative value for each player. If you were to have picked Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald of the 2008 Arizona Cardinals in playoff fantasy football, you most certainly would have won, as they went all the way to the Super Bowl as a six seed. Additionally, it should be noted that using average fantasy production does not account for players on hot streaks (Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed) or coming off of injuries (Marshawn Lynch). For evaluating those cases, you'll just have to use your gut. (Below are the computations for your benefit)

An Interesting Case
In my playoff league, we are using a multiplier to compensate for draft position. Thus, the X-1 player taken at each position will get a multiplier of between .05 and .15, depending on position, added to their score. For instance, the third Quarterback taken will get an additional .3 (.15 times 2) added to their score, meaning their value is 1.3 times their original value. The key is to draft high at premium positions (steep fall off in points such as Running Back and Tight End) and draft late for positions with great depth (Kicker and Wide Receiver). In this regard, the expected value calculation is invaluable in determining when to draft a position as depth or lack there of is only exacerbated.

Kirk's Home Cooking - Not So Fast

With the Washington Redskins in first place in the NFC East, Kirk Cousins needs to drastically improve his performance on the road in order to lead Washington to its first division title in three years, or so the pundits would have you believe. It's true, there is quite a discrepancy between Cousin's performance in road games, in which Washington is 0-5, and at home where the team is 5-1. At FedEx Field, Cousins has completed 74.7% of his passes for 1,632 yards and 11 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, compiling a passer rating of 113.0. On the road? Cousin's is completing only 61.9% of his passes with an abysmal 5 touchdowns to 8 interceptions for a passer rating of 69.8. Yet, Cousin's struggles on the road don't tell the whole story.

Kirk Cousins (8) looks to lead Washington to NFC East Title

NFL football games don't happen in a vacuum, despite what 24/7 sports analysis may lead us to believe. When taking a closer look at Washington's schedule, Cousin's drop-off in performance on the road is a little more understandable, even predictable. On the road, Washington has faced a New York Giants team that until last week had dominated Cousins and Washington since 2008, the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons, teams that were playing extremely well at the time, and the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers, both undefeated at kickoff. Meanwhile, at FedEx Field, Washington faced the Miami Dolphins, St Louis Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and New York Giants, not one of which has a winning record. And that's just the eye test. Washington's road opponents have ranked 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 16th, and 32nd in total defense. In other words, all of their road opponents have ranked in the top half of the league defensively, with the exception of the Giants, but you can just throw stats out the window for divisional games anyway. As for their home opponents, Washington faced the 12th, 13th, 25th, 28th, 31st, and 32nd ranked defenses. All things considered, Cousins has performed as you might have expected given the discrepancy in quality of opponents from road to home games. We'll see how he handles the 14th and 19th ranked defenses, in Chicago and Buffalo, and whether or not he can flip the script on his apparent "struggles on the road".

Washington in Driver's Seat of NFC East Clown Car

Perry Riley (56) returns an interception in the first quarter

Responding well to an embarrassing loss to Carolina. That's how coach Jay Gruden framed Sunday's divisional matchup with the New York Giants for his squad. Any talk about the ramifications of the matchup, first place in the abysmal NFC East, was left to the analysts. Gruden was out to see character, and Washington delivered in spades. Time after time Sunday evening Washington responded to a New York team whom they hadn't beaten since 2012. Whether it was Quinton Dunbar's interception in the end zone, halting an impressive Giant's drive, or Jordan Reed's 20 yard reception on a 3rd Down and 5 late in the 4th quarter, Washington played with character and passion, seemingly absent from their most recent losses to undefeated Carolina and New England. With the win, Washington controls their destiny in pursuit of their first division title since 2012. 

Washington 

Remaining Schedule - Dallas Cowboys (3-8), @ Chicago Bears (5-6), Buffalo Bills (5-6), @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-7), @ Dallas Cowboys (3-8)

Washington has the second easiest remaining schedule in the league. Twice they face a Dallas team that will be without Tony Romo (and is 0-7 in games he hasn't started this season), along with games against a Philadelphia team that has all but quit on their head coach. A meeting at Soldier Field with a Chicago team that is suddenly playing well should prove a tough matchup. 8-8 is an attainable record, though it will likely take a 4-1 finish to take the NFC East crown.

New York

Remaining Schedule - New York Jets (6-5), @ Miami Dolphins (4-7), Carolina Panthers (11-0), @ Minnesota Vikings (8-3), Philadelphia Eagles (4-7)

The race for the NFC East crown is likely a two horse race at this point with New York posing the biggest threat to Washington. Their remaining schedule is no cake walk with four grueling games before a home finale against division rival Philadelphia. If New York can solve the protection problems of an injury depleted line, they are in for long days in their next four games, all against teams that can get after the passer.

Philadelphia

Remaining Schedule - @ New England Patriots (10-0), Buffalo Bills (5-6), Arizona Cardinals (9-2), Washington Redskins (5-6), @ New York Giants (5-6)

Philadelphia is all but finished after a Thanksgiving dismantling at the hands of an underwhelming Detroit squad. Questions abound over a fractured locker room, the offense is anemic, and they face two of the best teams in the league in Arizona and New England. Sputtering to a 4-12 finish is not out of the question for a team that will likely be looking for a new head coach come January.

Dallas

Remaining Schedule - @ Washington Redskins (5-6), @ Green Bay (7-4), New York Jets (6-5), @ Buffalo Bills (5-6), Washington Redskins (5-6)

January can't come soon enough for a Dallas squad that has been hampered by injuries all season long. Last year's 12-4 campaign seems a far cry from a season in which the Cowboy's have yet to win without Tony Romo in the starting lineup. The schedule sets up well for the Cowboys to win a few games, but a division title and return to the playoffs seems out of the realm of possibility at this point.

College Hoops is Back - UConn Season Primer

The start of the College Basketball season couldn't come soon enough for fans of the Connecticut Huskies. Just two years ago, UConn completed an improbable run (well not improbable for yours truly)  to the school's fourth men's National Championship. Last year the Huskies stumbled to a 20-15 mark, and first round exit from the NIT, leaving fans pining for what appears to be a promising 2016 campaign. The Huskies open the season ranked 20th, and have the pieces to make a Sweet Sixteen run a reasonable expectation. 

UConn will look to replace the production
of last years leading scorer, Ryan Boatright

In order to reach their potential, UConn must replace the veteran leadership and production on the court from departed senior guard Ryan Boatright who led the Huskies in minutes, points, assists, and steals per game as well as free throw percentage in 2014-2015. Kevin Ollie's squad appears more than capable of doing so with the addition of fifth-year senior transfers Shonn Miller (formerly of Cornell) and Sterling Gibbs (formerly of Texas and most recently Seton Hall). The fifth-year transfer has worked well for Ollie in the past. Lasan Kromah, a then fifth-year transfer from George Washington, was a key contributor to the 2014 Championship team. Both Miller and Gibbs help address deficiencies from last year's squad. Miller should offer help down low on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, while also offering the versatility to play the five in a stretch-4 line-up. Gibbs on the other hand will do well to replace Boatright's offensive production, offering an ability to cut to the rim and a more dynamic threat from long range than Boatright did. 

Jalen Adams looks to be a star in the making for the Huskies

The Huskies have also added two dynamic freshman to a squad that looks to have a 10-deep quality rotation. This rotation will be compressed to 8 by the time March rolls around, but offers Kevin Ollie flexibility to experiment and work through injuries during the grind of the season. Freshman additions Jalen Adams and Steven Enoch, though both ready to play now, should only be aided by the depth on the UConn roster. Coach Kevin Ollie has said he hopes to allow Adams and Enoch to adjust to the college game with the help of his budding upperclassmen. Adams should play more minutes off the bat than Enoch, but look for both to be key contributors come playoff season.

Daniel Hamilton's (5) maturation is key to Huskies' success

Beyond their new additions, the Huskies will be led by a bevy of young returning players. Versatile swingman Daniel Hamilton looks to be a first team all-AAC candidate, with the ability to run the point, stretch the floor, and play above the rim. Junior 7 footer Amida Brimah is one of the few remaining holdovers from the 2014 Championship squad, but his continued maturation on the offensive side of the ball offers exciting possibilities to a UConn offensive that has the athleticism and play-making ability to spread the floor. Last year's leading shot blocker in the nation also brings an imposing presence to the defensive side of the ball for a squad that has added length from forwards Shonn Miller and Steven Enoch. Guard Rodney Purvis rounds out the top returners for the Huskies who will also be helped by key contributors Omar Calhoun and Sam Cassell Jr and role players Kentan Facey and Phillip Nolan.

Athleticism and length will be one of the Huskies calling cards, as they should be able to overplay many of the teams they face, particularly in conference play. Their versatility will allow Coach Kevin Ollie to go small or big, and should allow a team that has uncharacteristically underperformed return to being one of the nation's leading rebounding and shot blocking teams. Their December 8th matchup with 3rd ranked Maryland will be a great measuring stick of where the team is, though they should be able to coast to an AAC championship. I expect the Huskies to make the Sweet Sixteen, though they have the pieces to make a deeper Championship run. This team is better than the 2014 squad that won it all as a collective, but doesn't look to have a star as bright as Shabazz Napier. With plenty of underclassmen contributors, UConn looks poised to compete both this year and next. The Huskies kick off their 2015-2016 campaign tonight against Maine at the Gampel Pavilion. 

Overrated? Harper is NL MVP, and It's Not Even Close

41 Percent. That's the number of players that believed Bryce Harper was the most overrated player in Major League Baseball in ESPN the Magazine's player poll released this past Spring. The poll would mark the second consecutive year that Harper would carry the distinction of leagues most overrated player. Early returns are, he won't be winning a third consecutive title. Despite the Washington National's struggles, Harper, just 22, produced one of the most impressive offensive performances in recent memory. 

Harper ranked in the top five of nearly every offensive category in 2015

The biggest criticism of Harper's 2015 season? The performance of his team. Being unable to navigate a National's team marred by injury and inconsistent pitching to a playoff berth would certainly cost Harper's MVP bid in any other season, but who should win this year's award isn't even up for discussion. 2015 saw Harper dominate almost every offensive statistical category. Harper ranked first in the Majors in on base percentage and slugging, while ranking third in batting average (second in the NL), posting an impressive .330/.460/.649. His 9.9 wins above replacement were also best in the majors, while he trailed only Joey Votto with 124 walks. Harper's 99 RBIs were good enough for 5th in the NL, while his 118 runs were good for the top spot. Harper's 146.1 runs created also topped the majors, while his 81 extra base hits put him in the top 5 of all of baseball.

Beyond the gaudy offensive numbers, the most discernible impact of Bryce Harper's game came with his newfound patience at the plate. In 2015, Bryce saw an average of 4.1 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.9 in 2014. Even more indicative of Harper's maturation at the plate is his strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 1:1 (124 BBs and 131 Ks) as compared to nearly 5:2 in 2014 (38 BBs and 104 Ks). Harper took the next step in 2015, turning into the offensive juggernaut he was touted to be out of high school. His offensive game has evolved. In 2014, Harper could capitalize on mistakes. 2015 Harper's patient approach allowed him to capitalize on perfect pitches. Harper's 1.1090 OPS marked the first time a player posted a OPS above 1.100 since Albert Pujols in 2008. Harper, at 22, is the youngest player ever to post a OPS greater than 1.100, tied with hall of famers Ted Williams and Joe Kelley.

Bryce Harper started 2015 as the most overrated player according to MLB players. He'll end the year as the NL's most valuable, and it's not even close. 

NFC East Now Up For Grabs?

Before a report surfaced from Bleacher Report early today, it seemed, for once, the Washington Redskins were the only NFC East team not embroiled in any kind of controversy. Poor play calling and time management at the end of games leading to two 10 point leads being squandered in New York? Franchise cornerstones Dez Bryant and Tony Romo injured in Dallas? Offensive, scratch that, complete ineptitude in Philly? Even with reports that embattled former second overall pick Robert Griffin and current starter Kirk Cousins have an, at the least, untenable relationship, things are looking wide open for Washington to compete for the NFC East crown.

Matt Jones' (31) bruising running style has helped
Washington set the tone on offense

After a 24-10 dismantling of the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, Washington is a 69 yard punt return removed from a 2-0 start to the season. How have they done it? With the physical attitude new General Manager Scot McCloughan had hoped to bring back to the Nation's Capitol. It's undeniable that the attitude with which Washington has played the first two weeks is one of a smash-mouth team that you'll remember playing. The teams success has started up front, with offseason additions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean-Francois paying early dividends on defense, while fifth overall pick Brandon Scherff has fueled a resurgent offensive line. Look no further than the stat line for evidence that McCloughan's plan is, so far, working. The Redskins lead the league in rushing yards per game; toting the ball for 171 yards per contest, thanks largely to the 1-2 punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, who rank 6th and 8th overall, respectively, in rush yards. But why is this important? Beyond allowing Kirk Cousins to play "game manager" (Cousins has completed 75.9% of his passes, despite only throwing for 379 yards), the dominant rushing attack has kept opposing team's offenses on the sideline. Washington trails only Dallas in time of possession, averaging a whopping 37:49 of possession through two contests, up from a pedestrian 30:26 in 2014.

Newly added NT Terrance Knighton (98)
has anchored a stout front seven on defense

The ability to control the clock has only aided a defense that, granted against subpar competition, has looked dominant. Washington ranks 1st in the NFL in total yards allowed per game at a mere 234.5 yards per game. To give some perspective, Washington's top two running backs have gained 180 and 151 yards respectively through two games. Washington has been stout up front, allowing just 70.5 yards per game on the ground, good for 4th in the NFL, and has allowed just 164 yards per game through the air, despite playing with leads in both weeks. All this has allowed Washington to trail only Carolina and the New York Jets in points per game given up at 13.5 per game, a number that drops to 10 if you discount points given up by special teams.

Given Washington's new defensive and run-oriented personality, a team that many picked to finish 7-9 at best, has a legitimate shot to win the NFC East. If Kirk Cousins can continue to limit mistakes, manage the game, and convert key third downs, Washington has a shot, thanks in large part to everyone else's short comings. The NFC East however will be decided as it always is, by divisional record. Washington can begin to put it's best foot forward this Thursday night as they visit the New York Giants for their first primetime game of the year. The last time they visited New York on a Thursday night? Last years debacle of a performance, where four Kirk Cousins interceptions led to an embarrassing 45-14 defeat. If the team can keep winning in the trenches, the outcome should be different this time around.

DC Rising - Best Week in DC Sports History?

Now before I start, let's go ahead and throw out all the championships in DC sports history. Most people would argue a championship trumps overall good play in the postseason, regardless of how many teams were playing well. Yet for a city without a championship in one of the four major sports in 24 years, all four of DC's major franchises seem to be trending upwards. This past week could very possibly have been the best week in DC Sports History. It's definitely been the best in recent memory.

Washington Redskins

Let's start with the DC franchise most recently mired in mediocrity, and that's putting it nicely. This weekend saw new general manager Scot McCloughan stick to his draft board, draft players with toughness and an edge, and pick up extra selections. It'll take a few years to see how this draft turns out, but it has the chance to be a real "meat and potatoes" draft for a team that really needed it. In the upper half of the draft, McCloughan took players who can help immediately set the tone in the trenches. In the latter half, players who should immediately help on special teams. Fixing a deficient offensive line was a top priority, one that McCloughan did early and often. With a proven track record in evaluating talent, McCloughan has Washington on the right track. 

Washington Nationals

Max Scherzer, acquired this offseason, looked excellent Friday night

After losing four straight games on a ten game road trip, the Washington Nationals started the week with a 13-12, come from behind win over division rival Atlanta, after trailing 9-1 in the second inning. The following two nights produced a 13-4 clobbering of the Braves, and 8-2 win over the New York Mets. Despite a 4-0 loss on Friday night, Max Scherzer pitched like the ace the Nationals shelled out $210 million to acquire. Washington would cap off the week with back-to-back 1-0 wins, on the backs of two sensational pitching performances. Despite early troubles, the Nats are on the right track after taking two consecutive series from division rivals on the road. 

Washington Capitals

Capitals celebrate Joel Ward's buzzer-beater goal

The Capitals started the week with a game 7 and series win over the New York Islanders. Washington, who has struggled in game 7's recently, is making a strong bid in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs. Thursday night saw an improbable Game 1 win over the Eastern Conference's top-seeded New York Rangers. Joel Ward's goal with 1.2 seconds to go is one of the greatest moments in franchise history in the past several years. Despite a loss Saturday night, the Capitals have still stolen home ice. 

Otto Porter Jr (22) has played huge for
the Wizards in the 2015 postseason

Washington Wizards

Sunday night saw the Wizards dismantle a Toronto Raptors squad whose confidence had been destroyed, leading to Washington's first sweep of a seven game postseason series in franchise history. Game four saw a broken Raptors squad that appeared shell-shocked after a game three shellacking. After a full week of rest, the Wizards took on, and defeated the East's top seeded Atlanta Hawks. The Wiz are the hottest team in the East. They contained the Hawk's transition game, and forced them to play a half-court game in which they shot 37.8% from the floor. The playoff format should allow ample rest for banged-up, star guards Bradley Beal and John Wall after game 2. If the Wizards continue their excellent play in the postseason, they could find themselves in the Conference Finals, and even the NBA Finals.